116 National Union Blvd · Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$249,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2017 2,613 sqft lot Est $324k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely redone Ranch in the desirable Mystic Island section. Near Veterans Park and with in walking distance to the Marinas. This house features new windows , siding & roof. New HVAC done in 2021. New Shaker white cabinets and Quartz counter-top with the finishing touch of High end SS Appliances. This one will not last ! Book your showing Today.

Key facts

• Roof
• Ss steel appliances
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• RECENTLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• SS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GORGEOUS QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Property in Mystic Island / Little Egg Harbor area
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Fee simple ownership

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Light fixtures; Microwave; No fireplaces; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,894 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Lake Saint Clair	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	3mo	$529,900	$552	81
303 Lake Champlain Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (+0%)	4mo	$325,000	$346	80
18 Lake Huron Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+7%)	1mo	$430,000	$430	73
308 Falcon Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+8%)	3mo	$250,000	$248	70
118 Lake Deerbrook Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+11%)	2mo	$335,000	$322	70
21 S Dayton Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	912 (-3%)	0mo	$425,000	$466	67
215 Lexington Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	944 (+1%)	2mo	$145,000	$154	66
34 N Captains Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	900 (-4%)	2mo	$415,000	$461	65
203 Lake Placid Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	864 (-8%)	2mo	$324,900	$376	62
26 W Mullica Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	986 (+5%)	2mo	$302,000	$306	54
233 Yorktowne Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	986 (+5%)	3mo	$249,900	$253	52
425 National Union Blvd	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+13%)	1mo	$338,000	$320	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,595
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,802
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08087

• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,367/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $242,588

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Pin Oak Ln Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,550	$2.55	1d	1	0.75mi
8 Scotch Pine Dr #186 Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	1.0	1.0	680	$1,600	$2.35	15d	1	0.79mi
12 Timberline Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	943	$2,250	$2.39	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $249,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 306-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,367 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,284 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: +$916/yr (+$76/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,367
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinelands Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413000
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,396
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7075
• State rank: #344 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Mystic Island

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #17110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mystic Island, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,342
• Household income: $91,677
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.86%
• Current HPI: 340.4378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+595.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $200,000 MOMLS
• 2021-01-20 Pending — MOMLS
• 2021-01-17 Listed $189,900 MOMLS
• 2020-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2020-10-21 Sold (MLS) $82,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-21 Sold (MLS) $82,500 MOMLS
• 2020-09-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-08-12 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-12 Listed $95,000 MOMLS
• 1997-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-18 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MOMLS
• 1997-10-23 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-09-24 Listed $60,000 MOMLS
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,367 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.