330 W Highway 246 #20

Buellton, CA 93427

$235,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $1,423/mo
• Annual: $17,075/yr
• Cap rate: 13.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.95%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $235k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#438 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Santa Ynez Valley Union High (town): math 37% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #386 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Buellton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.