819 Mullberry St

Williamson, WV 25661

$140,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 321 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-856/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-856/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#228 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mingo County Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #42 of 55 in WV (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Williamson Pk8 (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #189 of 377 statewide, top 50%, 527 students, 0% FRL); Mingo Central Comprehensive High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 110 statewide, top 90%, 635 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.
• Mingo County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.