395 S Elm St

Commerce, GA 30529

$254,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-330/mo
• Annual: $-3,956/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $71,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $254k implies a 2017% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.