395 S Elm St · Commerce, GA 30529

$254,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1960 0.38 ac lot $293/sqft · 63% above area Est $305k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $254k implies a 2017% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,462 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,157
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: -16.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Chestnut St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	936 (+8%)	15mo	$115,000	$123	47
94 Hillcrest St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	975 (+12%)	3mo	$267,000	$274	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $112,076
• Equity at exit: $228,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $337,142
• Equity at exit: $493,466

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,810/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $206,294

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Heritage Hills Dr Commerce, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,503	$1.38	13d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    status Back On Market 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

17. 2026-04-02
    status Under Contract 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

18. 2026-03-05
    status Back On Market 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

19. 2026-02-19
    historical 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

20. 2025-11-19
    listed $254,000 New 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Very motivated seller! Come check out this updated home. This property is conveniently located to shopping and more

21. 2025-11-13
    historical
22. 2025-10-07
    status Back On Market
23. 2025-10-03
    historical
24. 2025-08-19
    price $259,000
25. 2025-07-01
    listed $269,000 New
26. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus $12,000 Sold
27. 2019-05-23
    status Under Contract
28. 2019-04-16
    price $15,000
29. 2019-04-06
    price $18,500
30. 2019-03-25
    listed $25,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$3,810
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$8,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+916.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $254,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $259,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $12,000 GAMLS
• 2019-05-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-04-16 Price Changed $15,000 GAMLS
• 2019-04-06 Price Changed $18,500 GAMLS
• 2019-03-25 Listed $25,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $366 · +58.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.