Ashton Plan

Shelbyville, KY 40065

$280,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 956 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,606
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-294/mo
• Annual: $-3,526/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $85,753

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.