Ashton Plan · Shelbyville, KY 40065

$281,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture yourself in The Ashton - a flexible ranch-style floorplan by Arbor Homes! Starting at 1,356 square feet, The Ashton offers a split layout ideal for families or first-time homeowners. Featuring three bedrooms and two full baths, this home provides plenty of room to personalize with your choice of finishes and upgrades. Step inside from the inviting front porch to a bright, open layout. Two secondary bedrooms sit off the foyer, perfect for guests or a home office, with a full bathroom conveniently in between. Throughout the home, multiple closets provide generous storage space. The spacious great room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen, designed for entertaining or everyday meals. Add an optional sunroom to enjoy natural light year-round. On the opposite side of the home, the private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an optional double bowl vanity with various shower configurations. With customizable elevations and design options, The Ashton gives you the flexibility to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,493.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wright Elementary (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #388 of 676 statewide, top 58%, 457 students, 53% FRL); Shelby County East Middle School (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #98 of 217 statewide, top 45%, 552 students, 47% FRL); Shelby County High School (math 24% / reading 36%, grade F, #122 of 254 statewide, top 49%, 994 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,888 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,493
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -8.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1022 Stratton Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	15mo	$280,000	$207	86
215 Woodfield Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	6mo	$298,000	$222	62
154 Woodfield Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+4%)	8mo	$277,500	$198	60
33 Woodfield Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+0%)	8mo	$315,000	$232	60
150 Woodfield Cir	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,380 (+2%)	11mo	$297,500	$216	58
304 Webbmont Cir	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,358 (+0%)	16mo	$189,000	$139	55
313 Woodfield Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-1%)	20mo	$265,000	$197	50
203 Woodfield Cir	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,499 (+11%)	2mo	$275,000	$183	44
405 Eastview Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	18mo	$202,000	$166	35
420 Frankfort Rd	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,432 (+6%)	16mo	$235,000	$164	35
406 Eastview Cir	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-14%)	23mo	$170,000	$145	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-77,115
• Equity at exit: $45,997

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-101,989
• Equity at exit: $26,673

Cash invested: $86,378 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.1 mo (92%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $273,495 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 542 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40065

• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $246,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-320	+0% $-426	+5% $-533	+10% $-640
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-512	+0% $-426	+5% $-341	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-348	base $-426	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,123
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4266 Tingle Dr Shelbyville, KY	4.0	2.5	1760	$2,695	$1.53	93d	1	0.08mi
325 Webbmont Cir Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.0	1053	$1,245	$1.18	41d	1	0.64mi
190 Benson Pike Unit 2 Shelbyville, KY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,395	$0.85	17d	1	0.85mi
131 Karen Ct Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	59d	1	1.14mi
127 Karen Ct Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	72d	1	1.15mi
6041 Edgemont Way Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,325	$1.56	93d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $281,990 Active 1003 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $281,990 Active 1002 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $281,990 Active 1001 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $281,990 Active 1000 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $281,990 Active 999 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $281,990 Active 996 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $281,990 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $281,990 Active 993 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $281,990 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $281,990 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $281,990 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $281,990 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $281,990 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $281,990 Active 981 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $281,990 Active 980 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $281,990 Active 979 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 978 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 977 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $281,990 Active 976 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $281,990 Active 975 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $281,990 Active 974 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $281,990 Active 972 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $281,990 Active 971 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $281,990 Active 970 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 968 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    price $281,990 Active 967 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 967 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $280,990 Active 966 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $280,990 Active 965 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $280,990 Active 964 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $280,990 Active 963 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,990 Active 962 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,990 Active 961 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $280,990 Active 959 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $280,990 Active 957 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $280,990 Active 956 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $280,990 Active 953 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $280,990 Active 952 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $280,990 Active 951 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $280,990 Active 950 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,990 Active 948 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,990 Active 947 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $280,990 Active 945 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,990 Active 944 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,990 Active 943 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,990 Active 942 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,280
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$8,974
• Taxable loss: −$10,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,770–$20,310 screening

The Ashton by Arbor Homes is a well-maintained, move-in-ready single-family home with a good condition score. It offers a spacious floor plan, modern kitchen, and well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers/tenants can expect a smooth move-in experience with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Clear Creek Elementary F KY #427/676 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Shelby County East Middle School F KY #98/217 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Shelby County High School F KY #122/254 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 2105320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,163
• Composite: 28.19/100
• National rank: #6809
• State rank: #77 of 165 in KY

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #4143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shelby County · 52,947 people
• City population: 32,160
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 32,160
• Household income: $77,869
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,947 people
• By 2030: 56,624 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 63,983 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 70,917 · +33.9%
• By 2075: 87,345 · +65.0%
• By 2100: 97,345 · +83.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.7) · D 31.8% · R 66.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -34.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.7 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.73%
• Current HPI: 177.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+8.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $267,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $265,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $263,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $258,990 Zillow