41709 Carefree Ct

Brambleton, VA 20105

$1,045,000D-

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,362 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,480
• Tax + insurance: −$1,808
• HOA: −$135
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,098
• Net cashflow: $-3,292/mo
• Annual: $-39,508/yr
• Cap rate: 2.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.23%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $292,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.04M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $569k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (50.0% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($982k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $523k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?