41709 Carefree Ct · Brambleton, VA 20105

$1,045,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,362 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 5,273 sqft lot $311/sqft · 10% below area Est $1166k · 10% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gifford home design blends comfort and luxury across three beautifully designed levels plus a daylight, partially finished basement. The main level features a sophisticated open-concept layout with a welcoming foyer that flows into a spacious great room, casual dining area, and a gourmet kitchen complete with a center island, breakfast bar, and walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and a spa-inspired bath featuring a dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three additional bedrooms provide ample space, including one with its own private bath and two that share a full hall bath. Multiple walk-in closets are found throughout the home, offering abundant storage. The daylight basement adds valuable living space, including an additional bedroom suite and a wet bar rough-in perfect for entertaining or extended stays along with plenty of storage. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, convenient everyday entry, and a powder room for guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite
• Spa-inspired bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.04M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $569k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $523k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($982k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,902 (50.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.23%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,166,403
• List price: $1,045,000
• Delta: -10.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41684 Carefree Ct	0.06mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,360 (-0%)	8mo	$1,075,000	$320	82
23415 Parkside Village Cir	0.09mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,383 (+1%)	10mo	$1,128,586	$334	77
23467 Parkside Village Cir	0.11mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,379 (+0%)	13mo	$1,097,950	$325	74
41676 Carefree Ct	0.06mi	5/5.0 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	5mo	$1,038,000	$285	72
23359 Parkside Village Cir	0.11mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	4mo	$1,110,000	$304	68
23475 Parkside Village Cir	0.11mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+8%)	13mo	$1,156,660	$317	61
23350 Parkside Village Cir	0.10mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,865 (+15%)	4mo	$1,094,485	$283	58
41550 Walking Meadow Dr	0.28mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	11mo	$1,079,950	$295	54
23424 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.21mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	17mo	$1,149,950	$314	53
41562 Walking Meadow Dr	0.26mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+9%)	14mo	$1,169,950	$320	52
23416 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.22mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,687 (+10%)	17mo	$1,149,950	$312	51
23397 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.26mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,856 (+15%)	15mo	$1,152,550	$299	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $29,857
• Equity at exit: $590,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $272,863
• Equity at exit: $1,017,923

Cash invested: $292,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20105

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,306 /mo · $15,675/yr
• Insurance: −$435
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,098
• Net cashflow: $-3,292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,396

Max offer price $568,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,570	-5% $-2,931	+0% $-3,292	+5% $-3,653	+10% $-4,014
Rent	-10% $-3,705	-5% $-3,499	+0% $-3,292	+5% $-3,086	+10% $-2,879
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,766	-0.5pp $-3,027	base $-3,292	+0.5pp $-3,563	+1.0pp $-3,839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $261,250
• Closing costs: $31,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41935 Spring Air Dr Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.0	4104	$4,900	$1.19	44d	1	0.97mi
22773 Orchard Grove Dr Ashburn, VA	6.0	5.0	4692	$5,800	$1.24	3d	1	1.31mi
22810 Tawny Pine Sq Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.5	2740	$5,199	$1.90	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,045,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,045,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,045,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,045,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,045,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $1,068,000 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    The Gifford home design blends comfort and luxury across three beautifully designed levels plus a daylight, partially finished basement. The main level features a sophisticated open-concept layout with a welcoming foyer that flows into a spacious great room, casual dining area, and a gourmet kitchen complete with a center island, breakfast bar, and walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and a spa-inspired bath featuring a dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three additional bedrooms provide ample space, including one with its own private bath and two that share a full hall bath. Multiple walk-in closets are found throughout the home, offering abundant storage. The daylight basement adds valuable living space, including an additional bedroom suite and a wet bar rough-in perfect for entertaining or extended stays along with plenty of storage. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, convenient everyday entry, and a powder room for guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,536
• − Property taxes: −$15,675
• − Insurance: −$6,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,020
• − Management: −$5,020
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$30,400
• Taxable loss: −$59,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,291
• After-tax cash flow: $-25,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brambleton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #6915

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 63,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,639
• Household income: $219,123
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 31% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 344.3873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $1,068,000 BRIGHT MLS