6550 Ponto Dr Spc 78

Carlsbad, CA 92011

$199,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$866
• Net cashflow: $1,882/mo
• Annual: $22,579/yr
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.52%
• DSCR: 2.80
• 1% rule: 2.07%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $199k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.