6550 Ponto Dr Spc 78 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1973 14 ac lot $276/sqft · 35% above area Est $197k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

$199,000. Across the street from Carlsbad State Beach. Yes, really. Walk out your door and you're steps from the Pacific. Mornings on the beach. Evenings watching the sun drop into the ocean. This is the actual daily life here. Move-in ready 2 bed, 1 bath, 960 sqft home. Updated kitchen with white cabinetry, tile backsplash, built-in workspace. In-unit stackable W/ D. Private outdoor space with 2 storage sheds and covered parking for 3 vehicles. Community: heated pool, spa, bocce ball, game room, clubhouse. Steps from Poinsettia Coaster station. No property taxes. No HOA. Monthly land lease $3,350 includes all community amenities. Beach living in Carlsbad at this price doesn't last. This is

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Spa
• Inviting pool

Tags

• PRIVATE RESORT
• INVITING POOL
• SPA
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• GAME ROOM
• WELCOMING CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Carlsbad South subdivision (Lanikai Lane)

Exterior

• Parking: Gated parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, range/oven, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Range; Oven; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $199k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.52%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,990
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 16.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $133,267
• Equity at exit: $75,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $326,717
• Equity at exit: $107,121

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$866
• Net cashflow: $1,882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,019	-5% $1,950	+0% $1,882	+5% $1,813	+10% $1,744
Rent	-10% $1,556	-5% $1,719	+0% $1,882	+5% $2,044	+10% $2,207
Rate	-1.0pp $1,982	-0.5pp $1,932	base $1,882	+0.5pp $1,830	+1.0pp $1,778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$3,775	$4.87	0d	9	0.84mi
1205 Aviara Pkwy Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$4,880	$5.32	4d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $229,000 Active 859-char remark
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $229,000 Active 1755-char remark
18. 2026-03-30
    historical $229,000 1755-char remark
19. 2026-03-03
    historical
20. 2026-01-17
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2026-01-16
    historical
22. 2025-11-30
    price $249,999
23. 2025-10-16
    listed $260,000 Active
24. 2025-01-11
    historical
25. 2024-10-13
    listed $249,000 Active
26. 2024-10-05
    historical
27. 2024-08-08
    price $249,000
28. 2024-07-04
    listed $269,000 Active
29. 2015-04-09
    soldstatus $79,000 Sold
30. 2015-04-09
    soldstatus $79,000
31. 2015-03-11
    status Pending
32. 2015-03-04
    price $88,500
33. 2014-12-03
    price $95,500
34. 2014-11-10
    listed $105,500 Active
35. 2014-11-10
    listed $88,500
36. 2014-10-22
    historical
37. 2014-10-21
    historical
38. 2014-07-10
    price $105,500
39. 2014-06-24
    price $115,500
40. 2014-04-23
    listed $119,500 Active
41. 2014-04-21
    listed $105,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,958
• − Management: −$3,958
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $20,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,953
• After-tax cash flow: $17,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+88.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $199,000 SDMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $229,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $249,999 CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-10-13 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2024-10-05 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $269,000 SDMLS
• 2015-04-09 Sold (MLS) $79,000 SDMLS
• 2015-04-09 Sold (MLS) $79,000 CRMLS
• 2015-03-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2015-03-04 Price Changed $88,500 SDMLS
• 2014-12-03 Price Changed $95,500 SDMLS
• 2014-11-10 Listed $105,500 SDMLS
• 2014-11-10 Listed $88,500 CRMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2014-10-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-07-10 Price Changed $105,500 SDMLS
• 2014-06-24 Price Changed $115,500 SDMLS
• 2014-04-23 Listed $119,500 SDMLS
• 2014-04-21 Listed $105,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2013): $252 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.