341 Orchard St

Old Forge, PA 18518

$215,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,573/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (20.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#287 in PA, #2,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Old Forge SD (suburban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #409 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Old Forge El Sch (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 50% FRL); Old Forge Jshs (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #232 of 437 statewide, top 57%, 453 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.