108 Forge Mill Estates Dr

Morganton, GA 30560

$260,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,771/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,704/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Fannin Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #485 of 1,228 statewide, top 41%, 415 students, 63% FRL); Fannin County Middle School (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 619 students, 53% FRL); Fannin County High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #68 of 424 statewide, top 17%, 900 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 377 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $260k implies a 1006% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,771/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.