108 Forge Mill Estates Dr

Morganton, GA 30560

$275,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2005 · Other · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,412/yr
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 306 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $275k implies a 1070% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.