108 Forge Mill Estates Dr · Morganton, GA 30560

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Other · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 1.66 ac lot $164/sqft · 20% below area Est $345k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on two lots overlooking small stream, this listing has 1.66 acres in the North Georgia mountains. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience—just 10 minutes from downtown Blue Ridge. Enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation while still having your own peaceful retreat. Inside, you'll find a functional single-level layout with durable wood-look laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. The cozy living room features a beautiful stacked stone gas log fireplace, creating a warm and inviting focal point. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and includes an electric range, making it both practical and efficient for everyday living. Step outside to the covered front porch—perfect for relaxing and taking in the natural surroundings. The generous acreage provides room to enjoy the outdoors, add personal touches, or simply take in the quiet mountain setting. Additional features include central heating and air, public water, and a septic system. Located in Forge Mill Estates with convenient access to Hwy 515, this home combines mountain living with everyday convenience in addition to a beautiful setting.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private wooded lot
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HWY 515

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 306 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $275k implies a 1070% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,499 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,390
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -20.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,175
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $46,345
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30560

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $808	-5% $713	+0% $618	+5% $523	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $492	+0% $618	+5% $744	+10% $869
Rate	-1.0pp $756	-0.5pp $688	base $618	+0.5pp $546	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $299,000 Active 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Tucked away on two lots overlooking small stream, this listing has 1.66 acres in the North Georgia mountains. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience—just 10 minutes from downtown Blue Ridge. Enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation while still having your own peaceful retreat. Inside, you'll find a functional single-level layout with durable wood-look laminate flooring throughout the main living areas. The cozy living room features a beautiful stacked stone gas log fireplace, creating a warm and inviting focal point. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and includes an electric range, making it both practical and efficient for everyday living. Step outside to the covered front porch—perfect for relaxing and taking in the natural surroundings. The generous acreage provides room to enjoy the outdoors, add personal touches, or simply take in the quiet mountain setting. Additional features include central heating and air, public water, and a septic system. Located in Forge Mill Estates with convenient access to Hwy 515, this home combines mountain living with everyday convenience in addition to a beautiful setting.

18. 2005-05-02
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,060
• − Management: −$3,060
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $3,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$774
• After-tax cash flow: $6,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fannin County
• NCES district ID: 1302100
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,693
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5597
• State rank: #51 of 174 in GA

Livability — Morganton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #21670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,194

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,218 people
• By 2030: 25,519 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 25,548 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 25,008 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 23,359 · -7.4%
• By 2100: 20,129 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.4% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+64.6 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.58%
• Current HPI: 316.822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1172.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $299,000 NEGBOR
• 2005-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $111 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.