407 E Lemon St

Fitzgerald, GA 31750

$49,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,063/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $517/mo
• Annual: $6,205/yr
• Cap rate: 18.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.41%
• DSCR: 2.98
• 1% rule: 2.13%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#513 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ben Hill County (rural): math 19% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #145 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ben Hill County Primary School (864 students, 89% FRL); Ben Hill County Middle School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 687 students, 89% FRL); Fitzgerald High School School College And Career Academy (math 20% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 424 statewide, top 68%, 861 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Ben Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ben Hill County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 5.0% in Fitzgerald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.