407 E Lemon St · Fitzgerald, GA 31750

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1960 6,534 sqft lot $42/sqft · 36% below area Est $78k · 36% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What is your dream include? Buying a traditional farmhouse home and doing renovations to make it everything you want, but still in the city limits with all the amenities or are you looking for the next investment home to add to your rental portfolio or to renovate for our Fitzgerald market? Whichever it is, look at this one! The home is located off the main streets of town and the home has a manageable sixed yard with a north facing porch that is large and inviting. Call today to see if this one fits your needs!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 5.0% in Fitzgerald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#513 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ben Hill County (rural): math 19% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #145 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Ben Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ben Hill County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.41%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,413
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -36.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 W Cypress St Unit 3+	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-1%)	2mo	$46,000	$39	68
312 W Cypress St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-1%)	2mo	$46,000	$39	68
110 W Orange St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,047 (-12%)	2mo	$94,870	$91	57
319 W Magnolia St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	6mo	$113,000	$101	54
502 W Magnolia St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+4%)	13mo	$179,000	$144	44
321 W Magnolia St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+8%)	10mo	$139,900	$108	44
112 Perry House Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+12%)	7mo	$159,900	$120	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $24,850
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $64,055
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31750

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $408

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $531	+0% $517	+5% $503	+10% $489
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $475	+0% $517	+5% $559	+10% $601
Rate	-1.0pp $542	-0.5pp $530	base $517	+0.5pp $504	+1.0pp $491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,900 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    status Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    What is your dream include? Buying a traditional farmhouse home and doing renovations to make it everything you want, but still in the city limits with all the amenities or are you looking for the next investment home to add to your rental portfolio or to renovate for our Fitzgerald market? Whichever it is, look at this one! The home is located off the main streets of town and the home has a manageable sixed yard with a north facing porch that is large and inviting. Call today to see if this one fits your needs!

15. 2026-03-21
    historical Active Under Contract 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    What is your dream include? Buying a traditional farmhouse home and doing renovations to make it everything you want, but still in the city limits with all the amenities or are you looking for the next investment home to add to your rental portfolio or to renovate for our Fitzgerald market? Whichever it is, look at this one! The home is located off the main streets of town and the home has a manageable sixed yard with a north facing porch that is large and inviting. Call today to see if this one fits your needs!

16. 2026-02-19
    price $49,900 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    What is your dream include? Buying a traditional farmhouse home and doing renovations to make it everything you want, but still in the city limits with all the amenities or are you looking for the next investment home to add to your rental portfolio or to renovate for our Fitzgerald market? Whichever it is, look at this one! The home is located off the main streets of town and the home has a manageable sixed yard with a north facing porch that is large and inviting. Call today to see if this one fits your needs!

17. 2025-11-04
    listed $59,900 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    What is your dream include? Buying a traditional farmhouse home and doing renovations to make it everything you want, but still in the city limits with all the amenities or are you looking for the next investment home to add to your rental portfolio or to renovate for our Fitzgerald market? Whichever it is, look at this one! The home is located off the main streets of town and the home has a manageable sixed yard with a north facing porch that is large and inviting. Call today to see if this one fits your needs!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $4,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ben Hill County
• NCES district ID: 1300360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $30,617
• Composite: 16.47/100
• National rank: #9186
• State rank: #145 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fitzgerald

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #513
• US rank: #23277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fitzgerald, GA
• Population (ZIP): 18,582

Population outlook (Ben Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,426 people
• By 2030: 15,788 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 14,582 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 13,351 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,301 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 7,652 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ben Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.8% · R 65.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -13.7pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+13.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.36%
• Current HPI: 200.1257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — TBOR
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — TBOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $49,900 TBOR
• 2025-11-04 Listed $59,900 TBOR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $478 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.