Yorktown Plan

Nampa, ID 83686

$510,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,933 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,156
• Tax + insurance: −$1,003
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-1,501/mo
• Annual: $-18,007/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.69%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $168,500

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $511k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $336k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenhurst Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #352 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 259 students, 56% FRL); South Middle School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 109 statewide, top 81%, 675 students, 41% FRL); Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #100 of 169 statewide, top 61%, 1,152 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 934 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,365/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.