Yorktown Plan · Nampa, ID 83686

$510,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,933 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The main floor of the Yorktown was designed for entertaining, offering an expansive great room, an open dining room overlooking and a well-appointed kitchen with a large center island. The garage leads to a convenient mudroom with walk-in closet, a powder room and a private study. On the second floor, there's an large loft surrounded by three bedrooms, a shared bath, a laundry room and a primary suite with its own bath and spacious walk-in closet. Select homes may include a sunroom, gourmet kitchen and/or a fifth bedroom. Designer curated finishes are sure to impress!

Key facts

• Large center island
• Walk-in closet
• Dining room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• MUDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $510,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $601,785.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $511k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenhurst Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #352 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 259 students, 56% FRL); South Middle School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 109 statewide, top 81%, 675 students, 41% FRL); Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #100 of 169 statewide, top 61%, 1,152 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 934 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,365/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,478 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.69%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,785
• List price: $510,990
• Delta: -15.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1619 Primrose Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	3,004 (+2%)	3mo	$1,298,000	$432	74
2733 E Melanite St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,691 (-8%)	4mo	$640,000	$238	66
3807 Wheeler Cir	0.16mi	4/3.0	3,196 (+9%)	22mo	$749,000	$234	57
3308 S Montego Way	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,508 (-14%)	3mo	$549,900	$219	56
3021 S Flathead Pl	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,880 (-2%)	18mo	$849,900	$295	54
3523 S High Springs St	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,624 (-10%)	7mo	$450,000	$171	52
2889 E Columbus River Ct	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (-10%)	1mo	$799,900	$305	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-192,191
• Equity at exit: $89,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-286,720
• Equity at exit: $52,031

Cash invested: $168,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $550,490 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 83686

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 934
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,156
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$752 /mo · $9,027/yr
• Insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-1,501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,264

Max offer price $384,642

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,085	-5% $-1,293	+0% $-1,501	+5% $-1,709	+10% $-1,917
Rent	-10% $-1,766	-5% $-1,634	+0% $-1,501	+5% $-1,368	+10% $-1,235
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,198	-0.5pp $-1,348	base $-1,501	+0.5pp $-1,657	+1.0pp $-1,815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,446
• Closing costs: $18,054
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3173 S Mystic Seaport Ave Unit 1322138P Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2992	$5,849	$1.95	110d	1	1.07mi
3391 S Rosa Parks Way Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2290	$2,450	$1.07	98d	1	1.11mi
3801 E Sutton Ave Nampa, ID	4.0	2.5	2106	$2,250	$1.07	0d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $505,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Yorktown planNew construction (Plan inventory type)
• Exterior features: Street address: 2306 E Locust Ln, Nampa, ID 83686

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (2,933 total living area square feet listed separately)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $510,990 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $510,990 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $510,990 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $510,990 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $510,990 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $510,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $510,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $510,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $510,990 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $510,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $510,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $510,990 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $510,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $510,990 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $510,990 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $510,990 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $510,990 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $510,990 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $510,990 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $510,990 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $510,990 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $510,990 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $510,990 Active 90 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $510,990 Active 89 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $510,990 Active 88 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $510,990 Active 87 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $510,990 Active 86 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $510,990 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $510,990 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $510,990 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $510,990 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $510,990 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $510,990 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $510,990 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $510,990 Active 78 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $510,990 Active 77 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $510,990 Active 76 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $510,990 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $510,990 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $510,990 Active 73 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $510,990 Active 72 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $510,990 Active 71 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $510,990 Active 70 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $510,990 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $510,990 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $510,990 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $510,990 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $510,990 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $510,990 Active 62 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $510,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,709
• − Property taxes: −$9,027
• − Insurance: −$3,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,230
• − Management: −$3,230
• − Depreciation: −$17,506
• Taxable loss: −$29,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Ridge Elementary F ID #223/357 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle South Middle School F ID #88/109 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Skyview High School F ID #100/169 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nampa School District
• NCES district ID: 1602340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,576
• Composite: 27.18/100
• National rank: #7022
• State rank: #82 of 92 in ID

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Canyon County · 248,853 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 60,993
• Household income: $86,518
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.85%
• Current HPI: 297.3608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.25%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $505,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Yorktown planNew construction (Plan inventory type)
• Exterior features: Street address: 2306 E Locust Ln, Nampa, ID 83686

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (2,933 total living area square feet listed separately)