734 Larkspur Ln

Midlothian, TX 76065

$435,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$886
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-909/mo
• Annual: $-10,905/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-909 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longbranch El (math 75% / reading 62%, grade B+, #176 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 652 students, 19% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1724 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.