734 Larkspur Ln · Midlothian, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +10.9/15.0
- Schools +6.1/10.0
- Cash flow +5.8/30.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.6/5.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.8/10.0
- DSCR +0.1/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$435,000
734 Larkspur Ln · Midlothian, TX 76065
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 119 Days on market
Built 2020
7,579 sqft lot
2-car garage
$177/sqft
· 8% below area
Est $471k · 8% under
$38/mo HOA · 1% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
MOTIVATED SELLER!! Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 3 bath home located in the highly sought-after Massey Meadows community! Still like new, this beautifully maintained home offers exceptional upgrades, modern finishes, and a spacious open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The gorgeous kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring stylish finishes, ample cabinetry, and an oversized island that opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas. The split-bedroom layout provides added privacy, with a spacious primary suite offering a relaxing retreat. From the beautiful curb appeal to the thoughtfully designed interior, this home truly stands out.
Key facts
- 7,579 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2020
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (35.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (32.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $280k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Longbranch El (math 75% / reading 62%, grade B+, #176 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 652 students, 19% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); tight market (median 1 DOM); 1581 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$279,731
(35.7% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.68% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.87%
- Cash-on-cash
- -8.66%
- DSCR
- 0.61
- GRM
- 12.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $470,929
- List price
- $435,000
- Delta
- -6.57%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 733 Winecup Way | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 | 2,404 (-2%) | 6mo | $473,169 | $197 | 79 |
| 738 Larkspur Ln | 0.01mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 2,620 (+6%) | 4mo | $449,900 | $172 | 78 |
| 725 Winecup Way | 0.27mi | 3/2.5 | 2,550 (+4%) | 4mo | $449,999 | $176 | 76 |
| 4602 Thistle Dr | 0.33mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,403 (-2%) | 4mo | $464,999 | $194 | 72 |
| 3821 Regent St | 0.29mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 2,582 (+5%) | 4mo | $399,900 | $155 | 67 |
| 3470 Nightingale Ln | 0.56mi | 3/3.0 | 2,527 (+3%) | 5mo | $495,000 | $196 | 61 |
| 3458 Oxford St | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 | 2,288 (-7%) | 6mo | $365,000 | $160 | 59 |
| 3421 Nightingale Ln | 0.71mi | 3/2.0 | 2,314 (-6%) | 5mo | $480,000 | $207 | 53 |
| 406 Garden Tree Trl | 0.61mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,544 (+3%) | 5mo | $420,000 | $165 | 51 |
| 722 Winecup Way | 0.30mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 2,798 (+14%) | 6mo | $509,999 | $182 | 49 |
| 3690 Mockingbird Ln | 0.59mi | 3/3.0 | 2,763 (+12%) | 4mo | $890,000 | $322 | 44 |
| 3445 Nightingale Ln | 0.64mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 2,098 (-15%) | 1mo | $499,000 | $238 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -30.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.00×
- Total profit
- $-122,340
- Equity at exit
- $64,860
10-year hold
- IRR
- -25.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.32×
- Total profit
- $-161,235
- Equity at exit
- $37,611
Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 84 active · 25 under contract
- Months of supply
- 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $477,995 ($196/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 71 d
- This list price
- 24% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -2.4% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 76065
- Home prices YoY
- -18.9%
- Rents YoY
- 4.3%
- Median DOM (565 sales)
- 1 d
- Active inventory
- 1581
- Price-to-rent
- 12.3×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,945 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,281
- Tax from tax record
- −$705 /mo · $8,458/yr
- Insurance
- −$181
- HOA
- −$38
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$618
- Net cashflow
- $-879
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$4,057
Max offer price
$279,731
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-633 | -5% $-756 | +0% $-879 | +5% $-1,002 | +10% $-1,125 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,112 | -5% $-995 | +0% $-879 | +5% $-763 | +10% $-646 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-660 | -0.5pp $-768 | base $-879 | +0.5pp $-992 | +1.0pp $-1,106 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $108,750
- Closing costs
- $13,050
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 27 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4434 Verbena St Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2970 | $3,400 | $1.14 | 48d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 3826 Hyde Park Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2822 | $2,995 | $1.06 | 50d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 1109 Abbey Ln Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2449 | $2,900 | $1.18 | 31d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 3457 Newgate St Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1848 | $2,200 | $1.19 | 18d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2400 | $3,200 | $1.33 | 139d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 3222 Eagle Ln Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2380 | $2,675 | $1.12 | 54d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 355 Freestall Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1940 | $3,250 | $1.68 | 18d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 347 Freestall Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2086 | $2,895 | $1.39 | 84d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 3250 Jersey Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2280 | $3,400 | $1.49 | 41d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2332 | $2,646 | $1.13 | 24d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2332 | $2,215 | $0.95 | 4d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 3005 Arbor Grove Trl Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2121 | $2,895 | $1.36 | 39d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 344 Dairy Way Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2817 | $3,200 | $1.14 | 64d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 3060 Farmhouse Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2658 | $3,500 | $1.32 | 41d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 2841 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1941 | $2,750 | $1.42 | 86d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 2837 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2153 | $2,900 | $1.35 | 88d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 2817 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1941 | $2,750 | $1.42 | 88d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2270 | $3,200 | $1.41 | 0d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2270 | $3,200 | $1.41 | 2d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 5225 Rowlan Row Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2996 | $3,800 | $1.27 | 0d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 5626 Rutherford Dr Midlothian, TX | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3304 | $3,600 | $1.09 | 25d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 6030 Bentwood Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2465 | $2,800 | $1.14 | 18d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 1017 Fairhaven Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2189 | $3,200 | $1.46 | 0d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2311 | $3,100 | $1.34 | 94d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 4017 Alpine St Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2311 | $3,200 | $1.38 | 24d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 4213 Pasture View Ave Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3026 | $3,650 | $1.21 | 82d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 6218 Cynthia Dr Midlothian, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1666 | $2,500 | $1.50 | 11d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Utilities easement presentSubdivision: Massey MdwsLot less than 0.5 acre
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOAHOA fee $450 annually (includes management fees)HOA managed by Goodwin & Company
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spacesNo carport spaces
- Security
- Burglar alarmSecurity systemSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detector(s)
- Utilities
- City waterCity sewerElectricity available and connectedCable availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesCurbs and sidewalks
- Home design
- Single family residenceTwo storiesResidential propertyPreowned (built 2020)Not attached to another propertyDeed restrictions
- Construction
- Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2020
- Exterior features
- Covered porchCovered patio/porchWood fencingFew treesLandscapedInterior lotSubdivision lot
Interior
- Kitchen
- Electric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveGranite countersPantry
- Bedrooms
- 4 bedroomsPrimary bedroom on level 1
- Flooring
- Wood flooringCeramic tileCarpet
- Bathrooms
- 3 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Ceiling fan(s)
- Interior features
- Open floorplanDecorative lightingGranite countersEat-in kitchenPantryCable TV availableWindow coverings
- Laundry & utility
- Full-size washer/dryer areaElectric water heaterTankless water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $435,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-09-22pricedays on market $435,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $440,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $440,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $440,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $440,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $440,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $440,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $440,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $440,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $440,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $440,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $440,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $440,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $440,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-09-02days on market $440,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $440,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $440,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $440,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $440,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $440,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $440,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $440,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $440,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $440,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $440,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $440,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $440,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $440,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $440,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $440,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $440,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $440,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $440,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $440,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $440,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $440,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $440,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $440,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $440,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $440,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $440,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $440,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $440,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $440,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $440,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $440,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-26pricedays on market $440,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $450,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $450,000 Active 57 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $8,458 · $705/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $8,458 · $705/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $35,337
- − Mortgage interest
- −$24,367
- − Property taxes
- −$8,458
- − Insurance
- −$2,175
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,827
- − Management
- −$2,827
- − HOA
- −$456
- − Depreciation
- −$12,655
- Taxable loss
- −$18,428
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$4,423
- After-tax cash flow
- $-6,125/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $12,300–$36,900 screening
This well-maintained, modern home in a desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. It features a spacious kitchen, bathrooms, and living spaces, with good curb appeal and landscaping.
Value-add opportunities
- Both paint exterior and interior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
C
Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Longbranch El
B+
TX #176/4,322
Nat'l #4,125/41,679
Middle
Walnut Grove Middle
B
TX #226/1,662
Nat'l #2,304/14,009
High
Midlothian Heritage H S
C
TX #315/1,632
Nat'l #3,934/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Midlothian ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4830600
- Math proficiency
- 53% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $85,068
- Composite
- 48.22/100
- National rank
- #2165
- State rank
- #94 of 826 in TX
B
Composite livability gradescore 70/100
Livability — Midlothian
- Score
- 70/100
- State rank
- #371
- US rank
- #7851
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living B+
Crime A+
Employment A+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings A-
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Midlothian, TX
- County
- Ellis County · 194,556 people
- City population
- 47,438
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 47,438
- Household income
- $127,756
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 194,556 people
- By 2030
- 209,679 · +7.8%
- By 2040
- 238,837 · +22.8%
- By 2050
- 265,451 · +36.4%
- By 2075
- 326,571 · +67.9%
- By 2100
- 362,156 · +86.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (65%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 15%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Ellis
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -56.85%
- Current HPI
- 243.5953
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.32%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+44.5% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-25 Price Changed $452,000 NTREIS
- 2026-06-16 Price Changed $454,000 NTREIS
- 2026-05-27 Listed $459,000 NTREIS
- 2020-06-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
- 2020-06-19 Listed $312,750 NTREIS
Property tax history
+57.1%/yrLatest (2025): $8,458 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…