6824 NW Willow Springs Dr

Lawton, OK 73505

$132,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $238/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $37,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (4.6% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $916 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Hills Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 466 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Ms (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 1,035 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Hs (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #215 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 1,350 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $132k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?