6824 NW Willow Springs Dr · Lawton, OK 73505

$132,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Condo public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1983 $150/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6824 NW Willow Springs Dr! This fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhouse features updated finishes, a functional floor plan, and a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and local amenities. Move-in ready and ideal for buyers seeking comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Granite countertops
• Conveniently located

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $150 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condo/Townhouse; One level; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential property
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Public-maintained road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Granite counters; Skylight(s); Electric fireplace; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Hills Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 466 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Ms (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 1,035 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Hs (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #215 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 1,350 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $916 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $132k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,575 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,369
• Equity at exit: $19,756

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,339
• Equity at exit: $11,456

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $132,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $57	+0% $20	+5% $-18	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-30	+0% $20	+5% $70	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $54	base $20	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   price $132,500
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $142,500 Active
5. 2025-08-29
   price $144,800
6. 2025-07-22
   listed $146,900 Active
7. 2018-04-18
   soldstatus $66,000
8. 2018-03-26
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$242/yr (+$20/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$1,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$466
• After-tax cash flow: $704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+301.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $132,500 LBRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $142,500 LBRMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $144,800 LBRMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $146,900 LBRMLS
• 2018-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.