370 Lakeside Cir

Trinity, TX 75862

$52,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,463/yr
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.52%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $14,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $91 of equity ($360 loan paydown + $-269 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 340 students, 70% FRL); Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 5.2% in Trinity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.