370 Lakeside Cir · Trinity, TX 75862

$52,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1984 8,629 sqft lot $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy manufactured home in the quiet Camp Branch Acres community in Trinity, TX. This home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with a simple, functional layout. Enjoy the covered patio/deck for outdoor relaxation. Located in a peaceful, rural setting and just minutes from the Trinity River, with community access to a boat ramp for fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation. Perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable country retreat.

Key facts

• Community access
• Covered patio
• Boat ramp

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• COMMUNITY ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 5.2% in Trinity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $91 of equity ($360 loan paydown + $-269 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,880 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.52%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $26,218
• Equity at exit: $13,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $65,585
• Equity at exit: $15,524

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $279/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $412

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $470	+0% $455	+5% $441	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $377	-5% $416	+0% $455	+5% $494	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $468	base $455	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $52,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $52,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $52,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,000 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    listed $55,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Cozy manufactured home in the quiet Camp Branch Acres community in Trinity, TX. This home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with a simple, functional layout. Enjoy the covered patio/deck for outdoor relaxation. Located in a peaceful, rural setting and just minutes from the Trinity River, with community access to a boat ramp for fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation. Perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable country retreat.

19. 2022-12-10
    historical
20. 2022-02-21
    price $39,000
21. 2021-12-10
    listed $44,000 Active
22. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-07-19
    status Pending
24. 2021-02-10
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $279 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 241.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$279
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $4,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $4,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1405
• US rank: #24056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Price Changed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Listed $44,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Listed $35,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · +1034.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.