39222 Arapahoe Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$449,990F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-1,343/mo
• Annual: $-16,112/yr
• Cap rate: 2.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.26%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $125,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (55.0% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $335k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?