18610 Old Triangle Rd Rd

Triangle, VA 22172

$380,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,178 sqft · Built 1945 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,449/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-1,356/mo
• Annual: $-16,276/yr
• Cap rate: 2.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.55%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (63.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (61.9% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (63.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#156 in VA, #4,926 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $380k implies a 744% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.2% in Triangle — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.