419 S 5th St

Girard, IL 62640

$58,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $563/mo
• Annual: $6,757/yr
• Cap rate: 17.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.61%
• DSCR: 2.85
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $16,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#787 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.