2905 E 21st Ave

Tampa, FL 33605

$314,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 532 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$560
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-260/mo
• Annual: $-3,123/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.54%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 532 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 317 students, 78% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,470/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 532 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.