14 Golf Course Road Rd

Au Sable Forks, NY 12912

$119,000B+

8 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,926 sqft · Built 1875 · MultiFamily · Active · 446 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $832/mo
• Annual: $9,984/yr
• Cap rate: 14.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.97%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $416/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?