6326 Bear Creek Ct

Fulshear, TX 77441

$479,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,894 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax + insurance: −$1,222
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-762/mo
• Annual: $-9,143/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $134,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $479k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-762 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (18.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $344k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Randolph El (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #70 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 1,078 students, 8% FRL); Seven Lakes J H (math 84% / reading 80%, grade A+, #7 of 1,662 statewide, top 0%, 1,630 students, 20% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 62% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Katy ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.