9436 Tooley Dr

Houston, TX 77031

$249,900D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · Built 1971 · MultiFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-933/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/2.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-933/yr) — negative. Per door: $-39/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $943 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valley West El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 653 students, 93% FRL); Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Sharpstown H S (math 7% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 1,855 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?