9436 Tooley Dr · Houston, TX 77031

$249,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1971 7,800 sqft lot $73/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment, Both units are occupied.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• 7,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• FULLY OCCUPIED DUPLEX
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• 2 CAR COVERED CARPORT
• BUILDING IN GOOD CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/2.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-990/yr) — negative. Per door: $-41/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valley West El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 653 students, 93% FRL); Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Sharpstown H S (math 7% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 1,855 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $943 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,200 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,991
• Equity at exit: $77,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $24,624
• Equity at exit: $96,820

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77031

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 18.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,298/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $235,326

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-12	+0% $-82	+5% $-153	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-171	+0% $-82	+5% $6	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-19	base $-82	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-213

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	2	$1,116
1× unit	3	1	$1,116
Total (2 units)			$2,232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9343 Starfire Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2520	$2,150	$0.85	9d	1	1.29mi
8115 Braesview Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2272	$2,500	$1.10	45d	1	1.39mi
8978 Dawnridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	0d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2010-09-08
   soldstatus 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   Great investment, Both units are occupied.

5. 2010-07-27
   historical 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   Great investment, Both units are occupied.

6. 2010-02-04
   listed $118,900 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   Great investment, Both units are occupied.

7. 2008-08-17
   historical
8. 2008-02-11
   listed $135,200
9. 2007-11-09
   historical
10. 2007-05-20
    listed $129,900
11. 1996-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,298 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,298
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 15,740

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 25% Black 20% White 14% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Current HPI: 235.9144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2010-09-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-02-04 Listed $118,900 HARMLS
• 2008-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-11 Listed $135,200 HARMLS
• 2007-11-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-05-20 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 1996-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,298 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.