2653 Nelsontown Rd

Brownsdale, FL 32565

$219,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-356/mo
• Annual: $-4,276/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (45.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#788 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jay Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 511 students, 63% FRL); Jay High School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 512 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 36% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.