2653 Nelsontown Rd · Brownsdale, FL 32565

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2653 Nelsontown Road! This beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on approximately 1 acre and offers a blend of modern finishes and comfortable living in a peaceful setting. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully renovated interior featuring wood-look tile flooring and neutral paint colors throughout, creating a clean and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is equipped with butcher block countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both functionality and style for everyday living. The primary suite offers a private retreat, highlighted by a beautifully updated bathroom with modern finishes. Additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, a home office, playr

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking available; Driveway parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: Copper electrical wiring; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or modular home; One story; Resale property; Homestead exemption applied; Insulation listed for energy efficiency
• Construction: Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Paved, county-maintained road access; Does not allow horses

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen with butcher block/solid surface countertops; Kitchen island; Stainless steel appliances; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13' x 14.5')
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Remodeled bathrooms with modern finishes (updated within last 1–5 years)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (45.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#788 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,600 (45.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $96,951
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $303,123
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32565

• Home prices YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $156,950

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-232	-5% $-294	+0% $-356	+5% $-419	+10% $-481
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-404	+0% $-356	+5% $-309	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-300	base $-356	+0.5pp $-413	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,825 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,149/yr (+$96/mo · 169.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$8,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brownsdale

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #18034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,653

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Chinese 4% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.17%
• Current HPI: 324.7547
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $224,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $677 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.