509 Keeler Ave

Spur, TX 79370

$25,999B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 295 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $448/mo
• Annual: $5,379/yr
• Cap rate: 26.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.89%
• DSCR: 4.29
• 1% rule: 3.06%
• Cash to close: $7,280

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $26k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $26k).
• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $23k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($180 loan paydown + $893 appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,138 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Spur ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #841 of 1,141 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.
• Dickens County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.