509 Keeler Ave · Spur, TX 79370

$25,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1950 9,888 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS! This single-family home in Jasper, TX, offers 616 sq ft of living space on a 9900 sq ft lot. While the home needs work, its location in a great area makes it a promising investment. Just minutes away from its main street, residents can easily access eateries and convenience stores for their daily needs. With some renovation and TLC, this property has the potential to become a cozy and convenient home. Don't miss out on this opportunity to customize and create your ideal rental home. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and ma

Key facts

• Access eateries
• Single-family home
• 9,888 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• ACCESS EATERIES
• ACCESS CONVENIENCE STORES
• POTENTIAL TO CUSTOMIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $26k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $26k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,138 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Spur ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #841 of 1,141 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($180 loan paydown + $893 appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Dickens County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,879 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.89%
• DSCR: 4.29
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $32,297
• Equity at exit: $12,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.20×
• Total profit: $74,249
• Equity at exit: $19,520

Cash invested: $7,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79370

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $228

Max offer price $25,999

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,500
• Closing costs: $780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-16
   listed $25,999 Active
3. 2009-12-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,456
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$764
• − Management: −$764
• − Depreciation: −$756
• Taxable income: $5,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $4,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800002
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,631
• Composite: 33.67/100
• National rank: #10452
• State rank: #841 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Spur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1138
• US rank: #20062

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,217

Population outlook (Dickens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,879 people
• By 2030: 1,720 · -8.5%
• By 2040: 1,443 · -23.2%
• By 2050: 1,249 · -33.5%
• By 2075: 971 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 774 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Dickens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.7% · R 85.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+73.2 2016: R+69.0 2012: R+56.6 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Current HPI: 87.075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $25,999 HARMLS
• 2009-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.