6886 Forest Ave

Wagon Wheel, AZ 85929

$219,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2010 · Land · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-400/mo
• Annual: $-4,805/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.80%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#164 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 100% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $220k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Wagon Wheel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.