6886 Forest Ave · Wagon Wheel, AZ 85929

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 160 Days on market

Built 2010 $137/sqft · 33% below area Est $327k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you love outdoor living space and a spacious interior, this is the perfect summer home. It has a full addition with extra living room and office area, a covered front porch, large back deck, and two large patio areas. It comes fully furnished both inside and out including decor and kitchen items. There is one bedroom, one bath but the addition could easily be divided to provide that extra bedroom or bath. Outside there's a carport and two storage sheds. The lot backs to the forest for privacy and great views. The golf cart is included and space rent has been paid for the 2026 Season. This home is located in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ community in Lakeside, AZ. The park is open from April 15 to October 31.

Key facts

• Maple-top island
• Fully furnished
• Built 2010

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• MAPLE-TOP ISLAND
• PREMIUM ELECTRIC RANGE
• NEW ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Wagon Wheel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#164 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 100% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $220k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,171 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.80%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,000
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -32.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-60,921
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-85,019
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$578 /mo · $6,931/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $149,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-276	-5% $-338	+0% $-400	+5% $-463	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-471	+0% $-400	+5% $-329	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-344	base $-400	+0.5pp $-457	+1.0pp $-515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3060 E Show Low Lake Rd Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,800	$1.52	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $219,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    status Under Contract 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Escape the valley heat and enjoy effortless mountain living in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ seasonal community tucked among the ponderosa pines in Lakeside, AZ. This fully furnished 1,600-SF manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus an office offers vaulted ceilings, faux wood beams, and a cozy electric fireplace creating a warm, welcoming feel. The kitchen features a maple-top island, upgraded counters, premium electric range, side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water, and new engineered wood flooring that continues through the main living areas. This is a seasonal park - open April through October, so a great summer escape. HOA? No HOA! The lot fee for 2026 has been paid and includes water, sewer, trash and activity accesses. Park Opens April 15! Call for access details

19. 2026-05-13
    price $225,000 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Escape the valley heat and enjoy effortless mountain living in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ seasonal community tucked among the ponderosa pines in Lakeside, AZ. This fully furnished 1,600-SF manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus an office offers vaulted ceilings, faux wood beams, and a cozy electric fireplace creating a warm, welcoming feel. The kitchen features a maple-top island, upgraded counters, premium electric range, side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water, and new engineered wood flooring that continues through the main living areas. This is a seasonal park - open April through October, so a great summer escape. HOA? No HOA! The lot fee for 2026 has been paid and includes water, sewer, trash and activity accesses. Park Opens April 15! Call for access details

20. 2026-05-12
    listed $110,000 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    If you love outdoor living space and a spacious interior, this is the perfect summer home. It has a full addition with extra living room and office area, a covered front porch, large back deck, and two large patio areas. It comes fully furnished both inside and out including decor and kitchen items. There is one bedroom, one bath but the addition could easily be divided to provide that extra bedroom or bath. Outside there's a carport and two storage sheds. The lot backs to the forest for privacy and great views. The golf cart is included and space rent has been paid for the 2026 Season. This home is located in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ community in Lakeside, AZ. The park is open from April 15 to October 31.

21. 2026-03-24
    price $228,000 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Escape the valley heat and enjoy effortless mountain living in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ seasonal community tucked among the ponderosa pines in Lakeside, AZ. This fully furnished 1,600-SF manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus an office offers vaulted ceilings, faux wood beams, and a cozy electric fireplace creating a warm, welcoming feel. The kitchen features a maple-top island, upgraded counters, premium electric range, side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water, and new engineered wood flooring that continues through the main living areas. This is a seasonal park - open April through October, so a great summer escape. HOA? No HOA! The lot fee for 2026 has been paid and includes water, sewer, trash and activity accesses. Park Opens April 15! Call for access details

22. 2026-03-24
    price $280,000 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Escape the valley heat and enjoy effortless mountain living in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ seasonal community tucked among the ponderosa pines in Lakeside, AZ. This fully furnished 1,600-SF manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus an office offers vaulted ceilings, faux wood beams, and a cozy electric fireplace creating a warm, welcoming feel. The kitchen features a maple-top island, upgraded counters, premium electric range, side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water, and new engineered wood flooring that continues through the main living areas. This is a seasonal park - open April through October, so a great summer escape. HOA? No HOA! The lot fee for 2026 has been paid and includes water, sewer, trash and activity accesses. Park Opens April 15! Call for access details

23. 2026-01-12
    listed $230,000 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Escape the valley heat and enjoy effortless mountain living in Rim Crest RV Resort, a 55+ seasonal community tucked among the ponderosa pines in Lakeside, AZ. This fully furnished 1,600-SF manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus an office offers vaulted ceilings, faux wood beams, and a cozy electric fireplace creating a warm, welcoming feel. The kitchen features a maple-top island, upgraded counters, premium electric range, side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water, and new engineered wood flooring that continues through the main living areas. This is a seasonal park - open April through October, so a great summer escape. HOA? No HOA! The lot fee for 2026 has been paid and includes water, sewer, trash and activity accesses. Park Opens April 15! Call for access details

24. 2025-06-24
    price $75,000
25. 2025-04-16
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed
26. 2025-04-03
    status Pending
27. 2024-11-18
    soldstatus $81,500 Closed
28. 2024-10-18
    status Pending
29. 2024-09-22
    listed $44,500 Active
30. 2024-09-21
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,931 · $578/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,931 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥89°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$6,931
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$8,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wagon Wheel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #18212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wagon Wheel, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $225,000 WMMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $110,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $228,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $280,000 WMMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $230,000 WMMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $75,000 WMMLS
• 2025-04-16 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WMMLS
• 2025-04-03 Pending — WMMLS
• 2024-11-18 Sold (MLS) $81,500 WMMLS
• 2024-10-18 Pending — WMMLS
• 2024-09-22 Listed $44,500 WMMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed $90,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,931 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.