128 16th St

Apalachicola, FL 32320

$165,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,519
• Tax + insurance: −$801
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-1,629/mo
• Annual: $-19,552/yr
• Cap rate: 2.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.54%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $134,495

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in FL, #1,611 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.