128 16th St · Apalachicola, FL 32320

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1946 0.40 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity- Quiet corner location in city historic district northside - three contiguous city lots with abandoned uninsurable frame dwelling. Lovely setting-three potential building sites with mature trees and native shrubs, convenient to schools, library, hospital, parks- six blocks from the Apalachicola Bay. Broker must accompany to enter abandoned dwelling, moved to present site from Apalachicola Army/Air base following WWII.

Key facts

• Corner location
• Native shrubs
• Historic district

Tags

• CORNER LOCATION
• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• THREE CONTIGUOUS CITY LOTS
• POTENTIAL BUILDING SITES
• MATURE TREES
• NATIVE SHRUBS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: - Zoning: R-1 (City); - Lot dimensions approximately 180 x 100 (0.4 acre); - Directions: Turn north off US HWY 98 onto 16th Street; look for the for-sale sign on the left at the end of the third block, corner of Ave H.

Exterior

• Parking: - Driveway with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: - Public water; - Public sewer; - Electricity available; - Water available; - Sewer connected
• Home design: - Detached single-family residence; - Residential property (new construction)
• Construction: - Frame construction; - Metal roof
• Exterior features: - Corner lot; - City street frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: - 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: - Corner lot orientation noted in lot features

🏗️ New construction. The $165,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $480,340.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in FL, #1,611 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.54%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
229 Fred Meyer St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (0%)	2mo	$480,000	$329	79
190 11th St	0.35mi	2/3.0	1,464 (+0%)	1mo	$487,000	$333	74
225 Ave D	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,499 (+3%)	9mo	$575,000	$384	70
110 17th St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (+6%)	7mo	$490,000	$316	70
121 Ellis Van Fleet St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+3%)	12mo	$434,500	$290	67
202 17th St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (-4%)	6mo	$479,000	$343	66
16 Adams St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$236	64
106 17th St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-11%)	7mo	$420,000	$324	61
162 23rd Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (+5%)	7mo	$263,000	$172	58
40 7th St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (-4%)	0mo	$520,000	$372	54
254 Hwy 98 W	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	6mo	$600,000	$446	54
172 11th St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (-13%)	4mo	$122,000	$97	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $157,865
• Equity at exit: $432,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $546,556
• Equity at exit: $933,195

Cash invested: $134,495 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32320

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,205/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-1,629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,202

Max offer price $244,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,297	-5% $-1,463	+0% $-1,629	+5% $-1,795	+10% $-1,961
Rent	-10% $-1,798	-5% $-1,714	+0% $-1,629	+5% $-1,545	+10% $-1,460
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,387	-0.5pp $-1,507	base $-1,629	+0.5pp $-1,754	+1.0pp $-1,880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,085
• Closing costs: $14,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Sawyer Ln Apalachicola, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,400	$2.04	14d	1	0.15mi
272 The Prado Apalachicola, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	14d	1	0.37mi
272 Prado St Apalachicola, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	21d	1	0.38mi
318 Earl King St Apalachicola, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	14d	1	0.51mi
123 Avenue C Apalachicola, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 234 DOM
18. 2026-03-16
    price $165,000
19. 2025-10-19
    price $195,000
20. 2025-10-08
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2025-07-12
    price $199,500
22. 2025-06-30
    price $219,500
23. 2025-03-11
    price $235,000
24. 2025-01-02
    price $249,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,907
• − Property taxes: −$7,205
• − Insurance: −$2,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$13,974
• Taxable loss: −$28,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,941
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apalachicola

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1611

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apalachicola, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,503

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.69%
• Current HPI: 358.7623
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $165,000 RAFGC
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $195,000 RAFGC
• 2025-10-08 Listed $175,000 RAFGC
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $199,500 RAFGC
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $219,500 RAFGC
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $235,000 RAFGC
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $249,500 RAFGC

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.