930 Campers Ln

Concord, VT 05824

$154,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 483 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $-405/mo
• Annual: $-4,858/yr
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.27%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (45.8% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $83k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#86 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.