930 Campers Ln · Concord, VT 05824

$154,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 483 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 0.27 ac lot $319/sqft · 18% below area Est $188k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to nature and claim your own slice of adventure on beautiful Miles Pond. This well-loved seasonal camp offers tranquility, privacy, and a front-row seat to the outdoors. With 100 feet of water frontage and nearby Fish & Wildlife access, Miles Pond is a dream setting for the nature enthusiast. Spend your days kayaking, paddling, water-skiing, fishing, birdwatching, or simply relaxing in the sun or under the stars. Nestled among the trees, the camp enjoys a majestic water view, unforgettable sunsets, and brilliant spring, summer, and fall colors. Despite its peaceful seclusion, you’re only 20–30 minutes from Kingdom Trails for world-class mountain biking and hiking, a

Key facts

• Water frontage
• Majestic water view
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• WATER FRONTAGE
• FISH AND WILDLIFE ACCESS
• MAJESTIC WATER VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Sale includes furnishings; Deed and survey available

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric on-site; Sewer: unknown; Water source: unknown; Water frontage length approximately 100 feet; Internet: unknown; No additional listed utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (Mobile/Manuf); White exterior; Metal roof; Built in 1960; Single-story (all primary rooms on main level)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Pond frontage with water view; Waterfront with shared waterfront rights; Directly adjoining water access to Miles Pond; Easements present; Dirt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heat
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Seasonal use

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#86 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,474 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.27%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,075
• List price: $154,000
• Delta: -18.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Nana's Ln	0.50mi	2/1.0 (+1)	528 (+9%)	11mo	$230,000	$436	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $20,325
• Equity at exit: $98,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $79,579
• Equity at exit: $180,227

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05824

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$192 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $95,423

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 966-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $154,000 Active 966-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$801
• − Management: −$801
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$7,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Concord

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #18119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,163

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,715 people
• By 2030: 5,396 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 4,680 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 4,025 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 3,104 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 2,590 · -54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: R (+16.0) · D 39.4% · R 55.4% · Other 5.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: -16.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+18.0 2012: D+13.4 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Current HPI: 174.4178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $154,000 PrimeMLS