409 Shelly Dr

Whitehouse, TX 75791

$214,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-215/mo
• Annual: $-2,585/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $59,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (24.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H L Higgins El (math 63% / reading 54%, grade B-, #467 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 597 students, 57% FRL); Whitehouse J H (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #181 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 776 students, 49% FRL); Whitehouse H S (math 71% / reading 69%, grade B+, #116 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,532 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.