409 Shelly Dr · Whitehouse, TX 75791

$214,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1983 $149/sqft · 14% below area Est $250k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H L Higgins El (math 63% / reading 54%, grade B-, #467 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 597 students, 57% FRL); Whitehouse J H (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #181 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 776 students, 49% FRL); Whitehouse H S (math 71% / reading 69%, grade B+, #116 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,532 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,157 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,248
• List price: $214,000
• Delta: -14.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Merri Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-8%)	9mo	$215,000	$162	47
1107 Mayme	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,379 (-4%)	14mo	$280,000	$203	45
304 Hillcreek	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+7%)	12mo	$254,900	$166	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-48,460
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-60,122
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75791

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,421/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $175,946

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-155	+0% $-215	+5% $-276	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-279	+0% $-215	+5% $-151	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-161	base $-215	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Hanks St Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	0.18mi
804 Fleetwood Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,025	$0.99	23d	1	0.38mi
806 Fleetwood Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,050	$1.02	23d	1	0.39mi
210 Memory Ln Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	962	$1,050	$1.09	23d	1	0.41mi
820 Lindsey Ln Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,895	$1.41	45d	1	0.51mi
205 Shady Ln Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.58mi
703 Memory Ln Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	15d	1	0.80mi
114 Cayden Cir Whitehouse, TX	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.81mi
805 Corey Dr Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,725	$1.15	15d	1	0.83mi
102 Zane Ln Whitehouse, TX	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.85mi
602 W Main St Unit Application Unit Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,190	$1.08	15d	1	1.02mi
405 Amanda Ct Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,900	$1.15	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $214,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $214,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $214,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $214,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $214,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $214,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

19. 2026-05-05
    status Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

20. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

21. 2026-02-19
    price $207,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

22. 2026-01-24
    listed $210,000 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the popular Whitehouse ISD. Higgins Elementary School is actually located in the neighborhood. The home features a well laid out floor plan, split bedroom arrangement, a wood burning fireplace in the living/dining area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and a fenced backyard for privacy and family living. Come see for yourself!

23. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus
24. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,421 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,421
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$6,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitehouse ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845600
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,060
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1274
• State rank: #38 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitehouse

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Whitehouse, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 15,786
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,786
• Household income: $92,107
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.16%
• Current HPI: 201.297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $214,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $207,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-24 Listed $210,000 GTAR
• 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,421 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.