5846 S Elm Ave

Millerton, NY 12546

$299,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,594/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Webutuck Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 221 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Brooks Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Webutuck High School (math 95%, 195 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $299k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.