5846 S Elm Ave · Millerton, NY 12546

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1900 7,405 sqft lot Est $581k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Webutuck Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 221 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Brooks Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Webutuck High School (math 95%, 195 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $299k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $580,608
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Dutchess Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,550 (+11%)	1mo	$509,000	$200	52
19 Traver Pl	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,082 (-10%)	8mo	$525,000	$252	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $176,684
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $509,627
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12546

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,061/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5768 New York 22 Millerton, NY	5.0	2.0	2200	$2,950	$1.34	43d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   status Active
3. 2026-01-30
   status Pending 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

4. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-31
   historical Active Under Contract 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

6. 2025-09-18
   price $299,000 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

7. 2025-09-18
   price $299,000

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

8. 2025-07-27
   listed $319,000 Active
9. 2025-07-01
   listed $319,000 Active 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Millerton Village This building appears to be rock solid with tremendous space. With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths the potential is invigorating. There is a nice level yard and a detached one car garage with an additional car port. Many of the rooms are not being used in the conventionally. There is some work to be done here and hopefully you will see opportunity that this property has to offer. Ample notice required to show.

10. 2016-10-31
    listed $229,000
11. 2002-04-19
    soldstatus $80,000
12. 1999-10-13
    soldstatus $71,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,061 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,061 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,061
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$2,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $3,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #8150
• State rank: #592 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millerton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #10777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millerton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,710

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 88.31%
• Current HPI: 405.1321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+318.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listed $319,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-10-31 Listed $229,000 HVCRMLS
• 2002-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,061 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.