3934 Rt-19 #3932

Scio, NY 14880

$190,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · Built 1955 · MultiFamily · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-493/mo
• Annual: $-5,918/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.63%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#827 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Scio Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #571 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?