5348 S Highway 186

Willcox, AZ 85643

$109,000C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 848 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $307/mo
• Annual: $3,679/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $109k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 848 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#193 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Willcox Unified District (4170) (town): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 249 in AZ (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.2% in Willcox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 848 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Structural damage
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major: Roof — Rusted and weathered
• Major: Exterior siding — Exposed wood
• Major: Flooring — Worn and exposed subfloor
• Major: Interior walls — Peeling paint and exposed wood