5348 S Highway 186 · Willcox, AZ 85643

$109,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 848 Days on market

Built 1987 Poor condition 0.66 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

Key facts

• 0.66 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 847 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $109k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.2% in Willcox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#193 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Willcox Unified District (4170) (town): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 249 in AZ (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 848 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 848 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,836
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $26,635
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85643

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 848 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 847 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 846 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 845 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 844 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 842 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 841 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 838 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 837 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 836 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 835 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 832 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 831 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 830 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 829 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 828 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    price $109,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

18. 2025-02-24
    price $119,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

19. 2024-04-29
    price $129,700 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

20. 2024-03-11
    price $134,700 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

21. 2024-02-22
    listed $140,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Muddy's Mine Building is located in the town of Dos Cabezas. The area is rich in mining history dating back to the 1900's . Beautiful views in every direction. Easy paved road access off Hwy 186. This would be a perfect property for an Air B-N-B or A Bed and Breakfast stop for birders, hikers,hunters, and all outdoor enthusiast en route to the Chiricahuas and surrounding areas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $2,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$483
• After-tax cash flow: $3,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to modern standards, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Structural damage
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major Roof — Rusted and weathered
• Major Exterior siding — Exposed wood
• Major Flooring — Worn and exposed subfloor
• Major Interior walls — Peeling paint and exposed wood
• Major Electrical wiring — Exposed and potentially unsafe

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Resale New roof — Enhances curb appeal and safety
• Resale New exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and durability
• Resale New flooring — Enhances comfort and aesthetics
• Resale Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and adds value
• Resale Replace electrical wiring — Ensures safety and functionality
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Rusted and weathered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Exposed wood	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Peeling paint and exposed wood	Major	$15,000–50,000
Electrical wiring · Exposed and potentially unsafe	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale New roof — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Resale New exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale New flooring — Enhances comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace electrical wiring — Ensures safety and functionality ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willcox Unified District (4170)
• NCES district ID: 0409250
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,077
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8085
• State rank: #133 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willcox

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #19794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,524

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 24% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.30%
• Current HPI: 141.9693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-22.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $119,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-29 Price Changed $129,700 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $134,700 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-22 Listed $140,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-29.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -29.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.