416 Craft Ln

Orange, TX 77630

$240,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,254 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,637/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-567/mo
• Annual: $-6,802/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-567 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (41.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• Orangefield ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #217 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?